Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Travis AdamsPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Lile hit sacrifice fly to center, Lowe scored.7–2
- 5Call singled to center, Bell scored and García Jr. scored, Lowe to third.6–2
- 5Bell singled to left, Abrams scored, García Jr. to second, Wood to third.4–2
- 4DeJong hit sacrifice fly to center, Lile scored.3–2
- 3Larnach hit sacrifice fly to left, Bader scored.2–2
- 3García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Abrams scored.2–1
- 2Wallner homered to right (452 feet).1–1
- 1Abrams homered to right center (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML WSH +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 5.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Cole Sands: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +63 Elo | MIN 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3021–31 | Road vs home | 29–2115th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 27th of 301453 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–51 | 52–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 28–34 |
| Underdog | 51–33 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 56–48 | 46–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–4 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.