Washington Nationals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 7Adams homered to right (348 feet).2–1
- 6Lowe doubled to right, Bell scored.1–1
- 5Dubón doubled to left, Diaz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 69%
- ML WSH +210 / HOU -255
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.4%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -223
- WSH +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +20 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +88 Elo | HOU 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 33–2312th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–51 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–18 | 26–46 |
| Underdog | 52–33 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 56–49 | 46–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.