Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perkins singled to center, Haase scored, Chourio to second, Turang to third.2–3
- 8Vaughn hit a ground rule double, Perkins scored.2–2
- 4Hernández homered to right (354 feet).2–1
- 3Chourio doubled to left, Haase scored.1–1
- 1Stowers singled to left, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML MIA +130 / MIL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +13 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +95 Elo | MIL 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 33–194th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 15521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–45 | 58–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–16 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 56–29 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders | 49–54 | 45–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 10–8 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.