Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vaughn homered to center (409 feet).7–4
- 6Myers homered to center (428 feet), Stowers scored.7–3
- 5Hernández homered to left center (385 feet), Sanoja scored and Edwards scored.5–3
- 4Turang doubled to center, Collins scored.2–3
- 4Collins doubled to center, Chourio scored.2–2
- 4Ramírez homered to right (372 feet).2–1
- 3Sanoja doubled to center, Myers scored, Sanoja out stretching at third.1–1
- 2Durbin singled to center, Vaughn scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML MIA +135 / MIL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −1 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +84 Elo | MIL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 33–184th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15541st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–45 | 58–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–16 | 23–27 |
| Underdog | 55–29 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders | 48–54 | 44–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–8 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.