Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-3
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Raleigh homered to right (391 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML MIL +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 46.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +24 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–23 | Road vs home | 27–2317th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 1st of 301555 | Elo rating | 151911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–44 | 43–57 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 17–42 |
| Underdog | 33–18 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–57 | 57–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–1 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.