Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Ben WilliamsonBatting2-3
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio singled to center, Yelich scored.6–0
- 8Yelich reached on infield single to pitcher, Contreras scored on throwing error by pitcher Garcia, Yelich to second.5–0
- 6Collins singled to right, Chourio scored.4–0
- 6Chourio doubled to center, Yelich scored.3–0
- 6Yelich singled to right, Turang scored.2–0
- 6Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Ortiz scored, Turang to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML MIL +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +20 Elo | MIL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3026–23 | Road vs home | 27–2217th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 1st of 301553 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–44 | 43–56 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 17–41 |
| Underdog | 32–18 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–56 | 57–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–1 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.