San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrill doubled to right, Bogaerts scored and Sheets scored.3–4
- 8Sanoja tripled to left, Hernández scored.1–4
- 6Hernández singled to center, Ramírez scored, Stowers to second.1–3
- 3Arraez singled to right, Maldonado scored.1–2
- 1Stowers doubled to right, Ramírez scored, Stowers to third.0–2
- 1Ramírez reached on infield single to third, Lopez scored on throwing error by third baseman Machado.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML SD +110 / MIA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 46.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +2 | SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +23 Elo | SD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 22–2926th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150012th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 147124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–44 | 55–44 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 2–15 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 53–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–58 | 48–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–5 MIA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.