Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- John RaveBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stowers homered to right (394 feet), Sanoja scored.7–8
- 10Ramírez singled to left, Hill scored.7–6
- 10Frazier doubled to right, India scored and Witt Jr. scored.7–5
- 9Rave homered to left center (390 feet).5–5
- 4Rave homered to right center (422 feet), Perez scored and Loftin scored.4–5
- 4Loftin reached on infield single to third, Garcia scored, Perez to second.1–5
- 3Stowers singled to left, Lopez scored.0–5
- 3Lopez doubled to center, Edwards scored.0–4
- 1Stowers homered to right center (406 feet), Ramírez scored.0–3
- 1J. Sánchez homered to center (431 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- KC: Elo 53.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +22 Elo | KC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 20–2726th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301492 | Elo rating | 147224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–51 | 54–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–30 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 35–21 | 52–28 |
| Overs–unders | 38–59 | 46–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.