Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4
- Trevor RogersPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edwards homered to right center (386 feet), Sanoja scored.6–0
- 9Sanoja doubled to left, Hill scored.4–0
- 9Hill reached on infield single to shortstop, Stowers scored, Hill to second.3–0
- 8J. Sánchez singled to right, Edwards scored.2–0
- 7Hill singled to left, Myers scored, Stowers thrown out at third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML MIA +140 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +1 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +38 Elo | BAL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 22–2322nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 25th of 301464 | Elo rating | 149721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–41 | 44–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 50–28 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders | 45–48 | 41–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–5 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.