Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez homered to left center (386 feet), J. Sánchez scored.2–5
- 7Laureano singled to right, Westburg scored, Henderson to third.0–5
- 3Laureano doubled to center, Henderson scored, O'Hearn to third.0–4
- 3O'Hearn singled to center, Westburg scored, Henderson to third.0–3
- 1O'Hearn doubled to center, Westburg scored.0–2
- 1Westburg singled to right, Holliday scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML MIA +125 / BAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +48 Elo | BAL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 21–2324th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 25th of 301466 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–40 | 43–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 50–27 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders | 45–47 | 41–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–4 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.