Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting5-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Laureano homered to center (426 feet).11–1
- 8Hicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.11–0
- 8Lopez singled to right, J. Sánchez scored, Stowers to second, Ramírez to third.10–0
- 8Stowers singled to right, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second, J. Sánchez to third.9–0
- 7Myers singled to right, Stowers scored, Hicks to third.8–0
- 5Stowers homered to right (364 feet), Ramírez scored.7–0
- 3Lopez homered to left center (379 feet).5–0
- 3Stowers homered to right center (398 feet), Ramírez scored.4–0
- 3Ramírez singled to right, J. Sánchez scored.2–0
- 2Stowers homered to center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML MIA +120 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BAL -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.5 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −18 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +23 Elo | BAL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 22–2423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 25th of 301468 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–41 | 44–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–13 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 51–28 | 28–23 |
| Overs–unders | 45–49 | 41–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–5 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.