San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Stowers homered to left center (400 feet).2–1
- 2Maldonado doubled to left, Merrill scored.2–0
- 2Merrill singled to right, Bogaerts scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 57%
- ML SD +120 / MIA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 46.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +25 Elo | SD 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 18th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 22–2826th of 30 |
| 12th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 7th of 301523 | Elo rating | 147224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–44 | 55–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–29 | 2–14 |
| Underdog | 32–15 | 53–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–57 | 48–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 10–5 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.