Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hicks hit sacrifice fly to right, Lopez scored.5–1
- 7Lopez doubled to center, Edwards scored, Stowers scored on fielding error by center fielder Perkins and Ramírez scored, Lopez to third.4–1
- 4Chourio homered to center (405 feet).1–1
- 3Stowers homered to left center (392 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 66%
- ML MIA +180 / MIL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -191
- MIA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +100 Elo | MIL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 67.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 7th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 33–173rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 24th of 301473 | Elo rating | 15571st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–45 | 58–44 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 2–16 | 23–26 |
| Underdog | 54–29 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders | 48–53 | 44–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 8–8 MIL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.