Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Ben WilliamsonBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Contreras singled to left, Turang scored.10–2
- 7Turang doubled to right, Ortiz scored and Seigler scored.9–2
- 6Chourio singled to right, Turang scored, Contreras to third.7–2
- 5Black singled to center, Chourio scored, Collins to second.6–2
- 4Contreras singled to center, Ortiz scored, Turang to third.5–2
- 4Turang reached on infield single to third, Seigler scored, Ortiz to third.4–2
- 4Ortiz singled to right, Collins scored, Ortiz to second, Seigler to third.3–2
- 2Williamson reached on infield single to shortstop, Canzone scored.2–2
- 2Canzone doubled to right, Polanco scored.2–1
- 2Perkins doubled to left, Black scored and Collins scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML MIL -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +12 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 28–2317th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 1st of 301554 | Elo rating | 15209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–44 | 43–58 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 17–43 |
| Underdog | 34–18 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–58 | 57–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–2 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.