Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-3
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yelich homered to right center (386 feet), Contreras scored.4–8
- 7Tucker singled to center, Hoerner scored, Tucker to second, Busch thrown out at third.4–6
- 6Frelick homered to right (384 feet).3–6
- 5Vaughn homered to left center (398 feet).3–5
- 3Turang hit sacrifice fly to center, Vaughn scored, Collins to second.3–4
- 3Collins singled to right, Contreras scored and Yelich scored, Vaughn to third.3–3
- 3Yelich doubled to right, Frelick scored, Contreras to third.3–1
- 1Happ reached on infield single to pitcher, Tucker scored and Suzuki scored on throwing error by pitcher Misiorowski.3–0
- 1Crow-Armstrong struck out swinging, Busch scored, Suzuki to second, Tucker to third on wild pitch by Misiorowski.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 48.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +2 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +14 Elo | MIL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3029–24 | Road vs home | 34–194th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 15521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–54 | 58–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–34 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 16–20 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders | 57–48 | 45–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 14–17 MIL in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 31.