Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong homered to right (383 feet).8–4
- 7Shaw homered to left center.8–3
- 6Tolbert homered to left (391 feet), Isbel scored.8–2
- 5Pasquantino homered to right center (414 feet), Garcia scored.6–2
- 3Kelly doubled to left, Busch scored.4–2
- 3Perez homered to left center (384 feet), Pasquantino scored.4–1
- 2McGuire singled to right, Happ scored.2–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right center (406 feet), Frazier scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML KC +135 / CHC -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −5 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +64 Elo | CHC 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–27 | Road vs home | 33–163rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–53 | 50–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 34–31 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders | 41–61 | 54–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–5 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.