Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hoerner singled to left, Happ scored, Swanson to second.1–4
- 3Anthony doubled to center, Duran scored, Bregman to third.1–3
- 1Suzuki homered to center (389 feet), Busch scored and Tucker scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML BOS +115 / CHC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +37 Elo | CHC 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 30–142nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–47 | 47–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 31–30 |
| Underdog | 27–13 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders | 49–49 | 52–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.