Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4
- Shane BazPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 4Narváez singled to left, Anthony scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML TB +145 / BOS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -156
- TB +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +14 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3022–20 | Road vs home | 30–2011th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–44 | 50–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–32 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 32–12 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 41–54 | 49–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 20–14 BOS in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 34.