Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-5
- Joe BoylePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brennan BernardinoPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rafaela homered to left center (406 feet), Anthony scored.4–5
- 4Toro grounded out to second, Story scored, Mayer to third.4–3
- 4Mayer doubled to center, Abreu scored, Story to third.4–2
- 3Simpson walked, Walls scored on a passed ball by Narváez, Caballero to third on passed ball by Narváez.4–1
- 3Mangum scored on a passed ball by Narváez, Caballero to second and Walls to third on passed ball.4–1
- 3Mangum scored on a passed ball by Narváez, Caballero to second on passed ball by Narváez, Walls to third on passed ball by Narváez.4–1
- 3Aranda scored, Caballero safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Toro, Walls to second, Mangum to third.2–1
- 2Rafaela singled to right, Abreu scored, Toro to second.1–1
- 1Caminero singled to left, Díaz scored, Mangum to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML TB -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +2 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +2 Elo | TB 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 29–2013th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–44 | 50–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–32 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 40–54 | 48–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 20–13 BOS in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 33.