Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4
- Chris FlexenPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting3-5, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Goldschmidt doubled to left, Rice scored.0–11
- 8Bellinger homered to right center (380 feet), Judge scored.0–10
- 7Escarra singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored, Goldschmidt to second.0–8
- 7Goldschmidt singled to left, Rice scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.0–7
- 6Volpe doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored.0–6
- 5Bellinger homered to right (376 feet), Domínguez scored.0–5
- 3Bellinger homered to right center (371 feet), Domínguez scored.0–3
- 3Judge hit sacrifice fly to right, Peraza scored, Domínguez to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML CHC +145 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- CHC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −8 | CHC: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +31 Elo | NYY 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 29–179th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301547 | Elo rating | 15434th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–48 | 44–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 37–46 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 51–42 | 42–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–3 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.