Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Judge homered to right center (388 feet), Bellinger scored.5–2
- 8Kelly homered to left (379 feet).5–0
- 3Happ singled to center, Swanson scored.4–0
- 3Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Suzuki scored on error, Kelly out at second, Swanson safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Chisholm Jr..3–0
- 3Kelly singled to left, Tucker scored, Suzuki to third.2–0
- 1Tucker grounded out to first, Hoerner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML CHC +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- CHC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.3 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +7 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +15 Elo | NYY 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–23 | Road vs home | 30–179th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–49 | 45–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–30 | 38–46 |
| Underdog | 14–19 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 52–42 | 43–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–4 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.