Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Matt ShawBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Rave scored, India out at second, Isbel to third.12–4
- 8Rave singled to center, Caglianone scored, Loftin to second.11–4
- 8Perez homered to center (408 feet), Garcia scored.10–4
- 7Rave homered to right center (404 feet).8–4
- 5Witt Jr. scored on Brown wild pitch.7–4
- 5Witt Jr. scored on Brown wild pitch.7–4
- 5India scored on throwing error by catcher Kelly, Witt Jr. stole third.6–4
- 5India scored on throwing error by catcher Kelly, Witt Jr. stole third.6–4
- 5Witt Jr. reached on infield single to second, Isbel scored, India to third.5–4
- 5India doubled to left, Rave scored, Isbel to third.4–4
- 4Perez homered to left center (380 feet), Garcia scored.3–4
- 2Shaw homered to left (385 feet), Swanson scored and Turner scored.1–4
- 2Kelly homered to left (366 feet).1–1
- 2Caglianone homered to left center (363 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML KC +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Ryan Brasier: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +78 Elo | CHC 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 32–153rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–52 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 33–30 |
| Underdog | 36–21 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders | 40–60 | 53–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 2–4 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.