Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Happ homered to left center (400 feet).0–6
- 8Crow-Armstrong homered to right (387 feet).0–5
- 7Shaw homered to left (373 feet).0–4
- 2Bruján hit sacrifice fly to left, Swanson scored.0–3
- 1Tucker homered to right center (386 feet).0–2
- 1Busch homered to left center (377 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML BOS +135 / CHC -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +10 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +62 Elo | CHC 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 31–141st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 13th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15503rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–48 | 48–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 32–30 |
| Underdog | 27–14 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders | 49–50 | 52–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.