Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Cade HortonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abreu homered to right (391 feet).6–1
- 8Bregman homered to left (402 feet), Anthony scored and Rafaela scored.5–1
- 7Abreu homered to right center (406 feet), Story scored.2–1
- 2Happ singled to right, Swanson scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -135 / CHC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 43.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 3.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +4 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +45 Elo | CHC 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 32–141st of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–49 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 33–30 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders | 49–51 | 52–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.