Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4
- Rich HillPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tucker stole home, Suzuki stole second.0–6
- 7Tucker stole home, Suzuki stole second.0–6
- 7Kelly hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored, Tucker to third.0–5
- 7Suzuki singled to center, Shaw scored, Tucker to second, Hoerner to third.0–4
- 5Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong out stretching at third.0–3
- 2Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turner scored, Shaw out at third.0–2
- 2Shaw reached on infield single to second, Swanson scored, Turner to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 67%
- ML KC +195 / CHC -235
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.7%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -207
- KC +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 5.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +12 | KC: Rich Hill: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +98 Elo | CHC 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 12th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 32–163rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Elo rating | 15453rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–52 | 49–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–31 | 33–31 |
| Underdog | 37–21 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders | 41–60 | 54–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 3–4 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.