Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benintendi homered to right (376 feet), Tauchman scored and Meidroth scored.5–4
- 8Happ scored on interference by third baseman Montgomery, Hoerner to second.5–1
- 8Happ scored on interference by third baseman Montgomery, Hoerner to second.5–1
- 6Shaw doubled to left, Hoerner scored on error, Shaw safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Meidroth.4–1
- 6Hoerner singled to center, Kelly scored.3–1
- 1Benintendi homered to right center (368 feet).2–1
- 1Crow-Armstrong doubled to left, Suzuki scored and Tucker scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CHC -165 / CHW +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +8 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Grant Taylor: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +72 Elo | CHC 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 22–3027th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 142829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–53 | 61–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 35–33 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 16–20 | 61–39 |
| Overs–unders | 56–48 | 49–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–2 CHW in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.