Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Montgomery homered to right (359 feet).3–4
- 4Quero hit sacrifice fly to center, Meidroth scored.2–4
- 4Meidroth singled to right, Tauchman scored.1–4
- 2Walls grounded out to pitcher, Caballero scored.0–4
- 2Caballero singled to center, Mangum scored on error and Thaiss scored on error, Caballero to second, Caballero safe at third on throwing error by center fielder M. Taylor.0–3
- 2Caminero scored on a balk, Thaiss to second on a balk, Mangum to third on a balk.0–1
- 2Caminero scored on a balk, Thaiss to second on a balk, Mangum to third on a balk.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TB 68%
- ML CHW +200 / TB -240
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- TB: Elo 67.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 5.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +125 Elo | TB 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 66.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–36 | Road vs home | 30–2719th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 29th of 301424 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–43 | 53–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 20–35 |
| Underdog | 58–38 | 33–13 |
| Overs–unders | 47–54 | 43–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–8 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.