Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7M. Taylor doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored, Vargas scored and Benintendi scored.10–1
- 7Benintendi singled to right, Quero scored, Vargas to third.7–1
- 6Montgomery doubled to right, Benintendi scored and Robert Jr. scored, Sosa to third.6–1
- 4Cruz singled to right, Reynolds scored.4–1
- 4Robert Jr. homered to left (413 feet).4–0
- 1Robert Jr. singled to center, Benintendi scored.3–0
- 1Benintendi doubled to center, Vargas scored.2–0
- 1Quero homered to left center (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML CHW +135 / PIT -160
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 60.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +77 Elo | PIT 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 3011–36 | Road vs home | 26–2117th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15141st of 30 |
| 29th of 301409 | Elo rating | 147025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–43 | 49–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 54–38 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 44–53 | 39–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–5 PIT in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.