Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting3-3
- Charlie MortonPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Laureano grounded out to shortstop, Henderson scored.1–11
- 6Caminero homered to right (341 feet).0–11
- 6Díaz homered to right center (358 feet), Jansen scored, Simpson scored and B. Lowe scored.0–10
- 6Kim flied out to right, Mangum scored on throwing error by right fielder Laureano.0–6
- 3J. Lowe doubled to left, Díaz scored, Caminero to third.0–5
- 2Jansen homered to left center (386 feet).0–4
- 1Caminero homered to left center (439 feet), Simpson scored and Díaz scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML BAL +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- TB: Elo 54.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −9 | BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 28–2520th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Elo rating | 152111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–51 | 52–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 19–32 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 33–13 |
| Overs–unders | 42–53 | 41–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 21–12 TB in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 33.