Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9N. Gonzales grounded out to third, McCutchen scored.7–2
- 5Tauchman doubled to center, Quero scored and Vargas scored.7–1
- 4Montgomery singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.5–1
- 2Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, N. Gonzales scored.4–1
- 1Tauchman homered to right (429 feet).4–0
- 1Vargas homered to center (411 feet), Meidroth scored and Slater scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML CHW +125 / PIT -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -135
- CHW +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.4 – 5.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −14 | CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +56 Elo | PIT 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 28th of 3013–36 | Road vs home | 26–2319th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15121st of 30 |
| 29th of 301417 | Elo rating | 146325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–43 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 56–38 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 46–53 | 41–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–5 PIT in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.