Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting3-3, 3 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sosa singled to left, Teel scored and Robert Jr. scored.10–4
- 6Meidroth singled to center, Tauchman scored.8–4
- 6Tauchman doubled to right, Robert Jr. scored, Sosa scored and Baldwin scored.7–4
- 6Slater singled to center, Teel scored, Robert Jr. to third.4–4
- 6Robert Jr. singled to right, Vargas scored, Teel to second.3–4
- 5N. Gonzales doubled to center, McCutchen scored.2–4
- 5Rojas doubled to right, Sosa scored.2–3
- 5Sosa singled to left, Robert Jr. scored.1–3
- 4Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Hayes scored, Horwitz to second.0–3
- 4Hayes doubled to center, N. Gonzales scored and Reynolds scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML CHW +115 / PIT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 55.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −9 | CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +40 Elo | PIT 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 29th of 3012–36 | Road vs home | 26–2218th of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15131st of 30 |
| 29th of 301413 | Elo rating | 146625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–43 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 55–38 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 45–53 | 40–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–5 PIT in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.