Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Brooks BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Díaz homered to left center (380 feet).8–3
- 5Vargas homered to left (344 feet), Benintendi scored.8–2
- 4Walls doubled to right, Caballero scored and J. Lowe scored.6–2
- 3Montgomery grounded into fielder's choice to first, Vargas scored, Robert Jr. out at second.6–0
- 3Robert Jr. singled to left, Benintendi scored and Meidroth scored, Vargas to third.5–0
- 2Baldwin homered to right center (352 feet), Teel scored and Montgomery scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML CHW +180 / TB -215
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- TB: Elo 68.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -191
- CHW +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +131 Elo | TB 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3014–36 | Road vs home | 30–2618th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 29th of 301420 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–43 | 53–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 57–38 | 33–13 |
| Overs–unders | 46–54 | 42–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–8 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.