Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Reese McGuireBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker walked, Hoerner scored, Bruján to second, McGuire to third.5–12
- 9McGuire singled to right, Shaw scored, Hoerner to second.4–12
- 8Baldwin grounded out to first, Rojas scored, Sosa to third.3–12
- 7McGuire homered to right center (394 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored and Happ scored.3–11
- 5Vargas singled to right, Slater scored, Quero to second.0–11
- 5Quero singled to center, Meidroth scored, Slater to third.0–10
- 4Tauchman homered to right (382 feet), Vargas scored.0–9
- 4Sosa hit sacrifice fly to right, Quero scored.0–7
- 4Slater homered to center (420 feet).0–6
- 2Benintendi singled to center, Meidroth scored, Quero to second.0–5
- 2Montgomery homered to right (380 feet).0–4
- 1Sosa singled to left, Quero scored and Slater scored, Vargas to second.0–3
- 1Meidroth homered to left (370 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML CHC -185 / CHW +155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +18 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +94 Elo | CHC 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–23 | Road vs home | 21–2927th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 142529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–52 | 60–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 34–32 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 16–20 | 60–38 |
| Overs–unders | 55–47 | 48–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–1 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.