Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caminero grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Simpson scored, Aranda out at second, Díaz to third.11–9
- 8Aranda walked, Caballero scored, Díaz to second, Simpson to third.11–8
- 8Meidroth singled to left, Baldwin scored, Tauchman to second.11–7
- 8Tauchman singled to left, Montgomery scored, Baldwin to second.10–7
- 8Baldwin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Robert Jr. scored on throwing error by second baseman Caballero, Montgomery safe at third on error.9–7
- 8Montgomery doubled to center, Vargas scored and Teel scored, Robert Jr. to third.8–7
- 8Teel singled to center, Benintendi scored, Vargas to third.6–7
- 6Caballero singled to center, Walls scored.5–7
- 6Teel homered to right (336 feet).5–6
- 5Aranda scored on error, Mangum safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Baldwin, J. Lowe safe at second on error, Caminero safe at third on error.4–6
- 5J. Lowe singled to left, Simpson scored, Caminero to second, Aranda to third.4–5
- 2Montgomery homered to center (414 feet), Teel scored and Robert Jr. scored.4–4
- 2Robert Jr. singled to right, Vargas scored, Teel to second.1–4
- 1Caminero homered to right center (363 feet), Aranda scored.0–4
- 1Díaz homered to right (331 feet), Simpson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TB 65%
- ML CHW +175 / TB -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TB: Elo 64.6%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -186
- CHW +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +105 Elo | TB 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–37 | Road vs home | 31–2719th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 29th of 301423 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–43 | 53–49 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 59–38 | 33–13 |
| Overs–unders | 47–55 | 43–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 6–9 TB in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.