Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Matt ShawBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tauchman homered to right center (381 feet).6–1
- 8Shaw walked, Happ scored, Hoerner to second, Swanson to third.6–0
- 8Swanson singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored and Kelly scored, Happ to second.5–0
- 7Shaw homered to left (388 feet), Hoerner scored.3–0
- 7Happ homered to right center (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML CHC -185 / CHW +155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −3 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +94 Elo | CHC 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 22–2927th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Elo rating | 143029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–53 | 61–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 34–33 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 16–20 | 61–38 |
| Overs–unders | 56–47 | 49–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–2 CHW in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.