Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ homered to right center (401 feet).10–3
- 9Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.9–3
- 6Tucker doubled to right, Shaw scored and Swanson scored.8–3
- 6Swanson doubled to center, Turner scored.6–3
- 5Frelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Perkins scored.5–3
- 4Contreras homered to right (387 feet).5–2
- 3Ballesteros doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Hoerner scored and Kelly scored.5–1
- 3Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Tucker scored, Suzuki to third.2–1
- 1Contreras homered to left (371 feet).1–1
- 1Busch homered to right center (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML CHC +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +35 Elo | MIL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 4th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 36–194th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 15571st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–56 | 60–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–34 | 25–29 |
| Underdog | 16–22 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders | 59–48 | 47–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 14–19 MIL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 33.