Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting3-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, Tucker scored.3–9
- 6Vaughn homered to left center (409 feet), Perkins scored, Contreras scored and Yelich scored.2–9
- 6Hoerner homered to left (379 feet).2–5
- 5Durbin hit sacrifice fly to right, Yelich scored, Vaughn to third.1–5
- 5Vaughn singled to center, Contreras scored, Yelich to third.1–4
- 5Contreras doubled to center, Perkins scored.1–3
- 3Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to center, Chourio scored, Contreras to third.1–2
- 2Seigler hit sacrifice fly to center, Vaughn scored, Collins to third.1–1
- 2Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Crow-Armstrong scored, Hoerner out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML CHC +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 35–194th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301541 | Elo rating | 15551st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–55 | 59–47 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–34 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 16–21 | 35–18 |
| Overs–unders | 58–48 | 46–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 14–18 MIL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 32.