Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting2-6, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Paul DeJongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hassell III singled to right, House scored and Lile scored.16–9
- 9Lile doubled to center, García Jr. scored, House to third.16–7
- 9House singled to center, Tena scored and Wood scored, García Jr. to second.16–6
- 8Vaughn homered to left center (393 feet), Contreras scored.16–4
- 7Ortiz grounded out to third, Jansen scored, Monasterio to second, Perkins to third.14–4
- 7Monasterio singled to left, Durbin scored, Perkins to second, Jansen to third.13–4
- 7Perkins grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Vaughn scored on fielding error by pitcher Loutos, Jansen to second, Durbin to third.12–4
- 7Contreras homered to left (369 feet), Lockridge scored.11–4
- 6Abrams singled to right, Lile scored.9–4
- 6Lile tripled to right, House scored.9–3
- 5Yelich singled to left, Ortiz scored, Contreras to second.9–2
- 5Perkins homered to center (398 feet), Jansen scored.8–2
- 3DeJong homered to left (352 feet).6–2
- 3Ortiz doubled to right, Monasterio scored.6–1
- 3Monasterio doubled to left, Durbin scored and Vaughn scored.5–1
- 3Jansen hit sacrifice fly to left, Yelich scored.3–1
- 3Vaughn singled to center, Contreras scored, Yelich to second.2–1
- 2Perkins homered to left (371 feet).1–1
- 1García Jr. singled to right, Abrams scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML MIL -160 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.7 – 3.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −1 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +77 Elo | MIL 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 21–3129th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 1st of 301554 | Elo rating | 145328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–48 | 55–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–30 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 35–18 | 53–35 |
| Overs–unders | 48–60 | 58–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–7 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.