Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting4-6, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to right, Olson scored.12–11
- 8Steer homered to left center (376 feet), De La Cruz scored and Hays scored.11–11
- 8Hays singled to left, Marte scored, Hays to second, De La Cruz to third.11–8
- 8De La Cruz singled to center, McLain scored, Marte to third.11–7
- 8Hayes homered to left (369 feet), Stephenson scored and Benson scored.11–6
- 8Murphy doubled to left, Ozuna scored, Albies to third.11–3
- 8Albies singled to right, Olson scored and Riley scored, Ozuna to third.10–3
- 8Riley singled to right, Williams scored, Olson to second.8–3
- 8Olson grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, White scored, Williams third.7–3
- 8Williams doubled to left, Murphy scored and Harris II scored, White to third.6–3
- 8White singled to left, Albies scored, Harris II to second, Murphy to third.4–3
- 6Albies and Ozuna scored on error, White safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Hayes, Murphy to third, White to second.3–3
- 4Harris II singled to right, Ozuna scored, Murphy to second, Albies to third.1–3
- 3De La Cruz homered to center (415 feet), Marte scored.0–3
- 2Stephenson doubled to center, Fraley scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 59%
- ML ATL +135 / CIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.6%, market 59.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -146
- ATL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | ATL: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +46 Elo | CIN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3019–36 | Road vs home | 32–2413th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–61 | 59–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 38–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–57 | 44–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–6 CIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.