Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walls homered to right center (401 feet).1–2
- 1Lux grounded out to first, McLain scored, Hays to third.0–2
- 1Hays reached on infield single to second, Friedl scored, McLain to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- TB: Elo 49.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +6 Elo | CIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 30–2215th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–52 | 57–48 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 33–15 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–61 | 43–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–4 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.