Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8McLain singled to right, Espinal scored, Friedl to third.2–6
- 8Friedl singled to left, Stephenson scored, Espinal to second.2–5
- 7De La Cruz singled to center, Friedl scored and Steer scored, McLain to third.2–4
- 7J. Lowe singled to left, Caballero scored, DeLuca to second.2–2
- 6Friedl scored and McLain scored, Hays safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Walls.1–2
- 6Díaz homered to center (415 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML TB +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +11 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +29 Elo | CIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 29–2216th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–51 | 56–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 33–14 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–60 | 43–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–3 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.