Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stephenson singled to left, De La Cruz scored and Hays scored, Espinal to second.2–7
- 6Friedl homered to right (388 feet), Marte scored.2–5
- 4Marte singled to left, Lux scored, Benson to second.2–3
- 4Benson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Hays scored, Steer out at second, Lux to third.2–2
- 4Walls doubled to right, Morel scored.2–1
- 3Aranda singled to center, Simpson scored.1–1
- 2Stephenson homered to right center (363 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML TB -105 / CIN -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −2 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +2 Elo | TB 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 28–2216th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–50 | 55–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 33–13 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–59 | 43–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–2 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.