Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benson singled to right, Lux scored, Stephenson to third.5–2
- 7Freeman singled to right, Ohtani scored, T. Hernández to second.5–1
- 7T. Hernández singled to left, Betts scored, Ohtani to third.4–1
- 5Ohtani doubled to center, Betts scored and Rojas scored.3–1
- 1Lux grounded out to second, McLain scored, Hays to second, De La Cruz to third.1–1
- 1T. Hernández singled to left, Betts scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML LAD -150 / CIN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −9 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +29 Elo | LAD 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 31–2212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301547 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–61 | 57–49 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–54 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 36–17 |
| Overs–unders | 57–49 | 43–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–8 CIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.