Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8T. Hernández homered to center (415 feet), Freeman scored.5–2
- 3Bregman doubled to left, Duran scored.3–2
- 3Duran singled to right, Wong scored.3–1
- 3Pages hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored, Freeman to third.3–0
- 3T. Hernández walked, Ohtani scored, Freeman to second, Smith to third.2–0
- 2Edman reached on infield single to shortstop, Pages scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML LAD -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +14 Elo | LAD 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 32–2010th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–60 | 54–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–54 | 25–34 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 29–16 |
| Overs–unders | 57–46 | 51–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–1 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.