Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 11Rojas singled to left, Harper scored.9–8
- 11Narváez homered to left center (370 feet), Rafaela scored.9–7
- 10Schwarber singled to right, Stott scored.7–7
- 10Story doubled to left, Duran scored.7–6
- 8Realmuto homered to center (410 feet).6–6
- 5González homered to left center (415 feet), Mayer scored, Refsnyder scored and Duran scored.6–5
- 5Duran walked, Rafaela scored, Refsnyder to second, Mayer to third.2–5
- 5Refsnyder walked, Yoshida scored, Mayer to second, Rafaela to third.1–5
- 4Stott homered to right (368 feet).0–5
- 3Castellanos homered to left (380 feet).0–4
- 1Harper homered to right (439 feet).0–3
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (409 feet), Turner scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML BOS +130 / PHI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −18 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–29 | Road vs home | 33–185th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–50 | 50–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 37–43 |
| Underdog | 28–16 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 50–53 | 44–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.