Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake EderPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harper homered to left (366 feet).6–5
- 7Ward homered to left center (393 feet), Schanuel scored.6–4
- 5Trout singled to center, Neto scored, Schanuel to third.4–4
- 4Adell homered to center (411 feet), Trout scored.3–4
- 3Harper homered to right (375 feet), Turner scored and Schwarber scored.1–4
- 2Soler homered to left center (420 feet).1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (366 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML LAA +170 / PHI -205
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.8%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -181
- LAA +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −16 | LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn (no track record yet) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +76 Elo | PHI 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 30–166th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 26th of 301458 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–46 | 48–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 35–40 |
| Underdog | 42–26 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–44 | 41–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–4 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.