Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-4
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Sosa reached first base on catcher's interference, Marsh scored, Kepler to second, Kemp to third.2–3
- 6Story singled to left, Bregman scored, Anthony to third.2–2
- 4Realmuto singled to center, Castellanos scored.1–2
- 4Castellanos singled to left, Harper scored.1–1
- 1Duran homered to left (365 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 68%
- ML BOS +200 / PHI -240
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -212
- BOS +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 31–187th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 14th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–49 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 36–42 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 50–51 | 44–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.