Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Otto KempBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ward doubled to left, Neto scored, Wade Jr. to third.8–2
- 6Kemp homered to right center (361 feet).7–2
- 6Wade Jr. homered to right (422 feet).7–1
- 4Trout hit sacrifice fly to right, Neto scored.6–1
- 2Marchán singled to center, Marsh scored.5–1
- 2Ward doubled to left, Newman scored, Trout scored and Neto scored.5–0
- 2Trout walked, Rengifo scored, Neto to second, Newman to third.2–0
- 2Neto singled to right, O'Hoppe scored, Newman to second, Rengifo to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML LAA +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 67.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +16 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +124 Elo | PHI 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 31–175th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 26th of 301458 | Elo rating | 15395th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–47 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 36–41 |
| Underdog | 43–27 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 54–44 | 43–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–5 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.