Los Angeles Angels at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harper homered to center (405 feet), Schwarber scored.5–9
- 7Ward doubled to left, Schanuel scored.5–7
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (390 feet), Kemp scored, Marsh scored and Turner scored.4–7
- 6Rojas hit sacrifice fly to left, Realmuto scored.4–3
- 6Moncada homered to right (397 feet).4–2
- 5Turner singled to center, Rojas scored.3–2
- 4Neto singled to left, Moncada scored, Rengifo to second, Wade Jr. to third.3–1
- 4Adell homered to left (373 feet).2–1
- 4Ward homered to center (428 feet).1–1
- 1Castellanos singled to left, Harper scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML LAA +110 / PHI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.6 – 4.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −22 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +76 Elo | PHI 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 30–177th of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 26th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–46 | 48–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 35–41 |
| Underdog | 43–26 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 53–44 | 42–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–4 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.