Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 4Refsnyder homered to left center (410 feet).1–4
- 2Schwarber homered to center (410 feet).0–4
- 2Kepler homered to right center (407 feet).0–3
- 1Marsh reached first base on catcher's interference, Harper to home, Castellanos to third.0–2
- 1Harper scored on a balk and Harper to home, Castellanos to third.0–2
- 1Harper scored on a balk, Castellanos to third on a balk.0–2
- 1Harper scored on a balk, Castellanos to third on a balk.0–2
- 1Harper scored on a balk, Castellanos to third on a balk.0–2
- 1Castellanos singled to center, Turner scored, Harper to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML BOS +160 / PHI -190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- BOS +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +16 | BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +58 Elo | PHI 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 32–185th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 14th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–49 | 49–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 36–43 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 50–52 | 44–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–3 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.